Blackjack Match The Dealer House Edge
Blackjack Dealer Bust: Software to Calculate Probability, Odds, House Edge, Advantage HA. Keep this new figure in mind: The odds for a blackjack Dealer's bust are at least 33%. The bust probability is calculated by dividing the number of Dealer's busted hands to the total possible blackjack actions. For a player to be able to beat the dealer and the house edge, he or she must master the art of counting cards. It is not a complicated activity but it needs a lot of keenness and accuracy. Blackjack counting is based on basic strategy since it determines how every card is played. Card counting requires mastery over the value of every card. Earlier this year, I was asked to speak to a group of inexperienced players before their casino trip. One who had just started playing blackjack said he was confused over why the house had an edge. After all, the dealer is stuck hitting or standing according to set rules, while players can make decisions, and the dealer can’t double down, split pairs or get paid 3-2 on blackjacks.
- Appendices
- Miscellaneous
- External Links
Introduction
Match the Dealer is a side bet found in blackjack, Spanish 21, and Down Under Blackjack. It wins if either of the player's initial two cards match the dealer's up card in rank. Wins are more if both match and for suited matches.
Rules
Match the Dealer can be added to any conventional blackjack or blackjack variant. It pays if either of the player's initial two cards match the dealer's up card in rank. A match in suit and rank pays more. The following two pay tables show the known pay tables available according to the number of decks. The first table is for blackjack or any blackjack variant using full 52-card decks. The second is for Spanish 21, which uses a depleted 48-card deck with no tens. All pays are on a 'to one' basis.
Blackjack Pay Table
| Decks | Unsuited Match | Suited Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | 3 | 14 |
Spanish 21 Pay Table
Blackjack Analysis
The following table shows my analysis in two-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 4 to 1 and a suited match pays 19 to 1.
4/19 Two-Deck Blackjack Analysis
| Event | Pays | Permutations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two suited matches | 38 | - | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| One suited and one non-suited match | 23 | 6 | 0.001142 | 0.026271 |
| One suited match | 19 | 96 | 0.018275 | 0.347230 |
| Two non-suited matches | 8 | 15 | 0.002856 | 0.022844 |
| One non-suited match | 4 | 576 | 0.109652 | 0.438607 |
| No matches | -1 | 4,560 | 0.868075 | -0.868075 |
| Total | 5,253 | 1.000000 | -0.033124 |
The following table shows my analysis in four-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 4 to 1 and a suited match pays 12 to 1.
4/12 Four-Deck Blackjack Analysis
Blackjack Match The Dealer House Edgewater
| Event | Pays | Permutations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two suited matches | 24 | 3 | 0.000141 | 0.003377 |
| One suited and one non-suited match | 16 | 36 | 0.001688 | 0.027016 |
| One suited match | 12 | 576 | 0.027016 | 0.324187 |
| Two non-suited matches | 8 | 66 | 0.003096 | 0.024764 |
| One non-suited match | 4 | 2,304 | 0.108062 | 0.432250 |
| No matches | -1 | 18,336 | 0.859997 | -0.859997 |
| Total | 21,321 | 1.000000 | -0.048403 |
The following table shows my analysis in five-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 3 to 1 and a suited match pays 15 to 1.
3/15 Five-Deck Blackjack Analysis
| Event | Pays | Permutations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two suited matches | 30 | 6 | 0.000180 | 0.005387 |
| One suited and one non-suited match | 18 | 60 | 0.001796 | 0.032325 |
| One suited match | 15 | 960 | 0.028733 | 0.430996 |
| Two non-suited matches | 6 | 105 | 0.003143 | 0.018856 |
| One non-suited match | 3 | 3,600 | 0.107749 | 0.323247 |
| No matches | -1 | 28,680 | 0.858400 | -0.858400 |
| Total | 33,411 | 1.000000 | -0.047589 |
The following table shows my analysis in six-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 4 to 1 and a suited match pays 11 to 1.
4/11 Six-Deck Blackjack Analysis
| Event | Pays | Permutations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two suited matches | 22 | 10 | 0.000207 | 0.004564 |
| One suited and one non-suited match | 15 | 90 | 0.001867 | 0.028005 |
| One suited match | 11 | 1,440 | 0.029872 | 0.328597 |
| Two non-suited matches | 8 | 153 | 0.003174 | 0.025392 |
| One non-suited match | 4 | 5,184 | 0.107541 | 0.430163 |
| No matches | -1 | 41,328 | 0.857338 | -0.857338 |
| Total | 48,205 | 1.000000 | -0.040618 |
The following table shows my analysis in eight-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 3 to 1 and a suited match pays 14 to 1.
3/14 Eight-Deck Blackjack Analysis
| Event | Pays | Permutations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two suited matches | 28 | 21 | 0.000244 | 0.006845 |
| One suited and one non-suited match | 17 | 168 | 0.001956 | 0.033246 |
| One suited match | 14 | 2,688 | 0.031290 | 0.438065 |
| Two non-suited matches | 6 | 276 | 0.003213 | 0.019277 |
| One non-suited match | 3 | 9,216 | 0.107281 | 0.321844 |
| No matches | -1 | 73,536 | 0.856015 | -0.856015 |
| Total | 85,905 | 1.000000 | -0.036738 |
Spanish 21 Analysis
The following table shows my analysis in eight-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 3 to 1 and a suited match pays 14 to 1.
4/9 Six-Deck Spanish 21 Analysis
| Event | Pays | Permutations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two suited matches | 18 | 10 | 0.000244 | 0.004386 |
| One suited and one non-suited match | 13 | 90 | 0.002193 | 0.028508 |
| One suited match | 9 | 1,320 | 0.032163 | 0.289467 |
| Two non-suited matches | 8 | 153 | 0.003728 | 0.029824 |
| One non-suited match | 4 | 4,752 | 0.115787 | 0.463147 |
| No matches | -1 | 34,716 | 0.845886 | -0.845886 |
| Total | 41,041 | 1.000000 | -0.030555 |
The following table shows my analysis in eight-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 3 to 1 and a suited match pays 12 to 1.
3/12 Eight-Deck Spanish 21 Analysis
| Event | Pays | Permutations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two suited matches | 24 | 21 | 0.000287 | 0.006890 |
| One suited and one non-suited match | 15 | 168 | 0.002297 | 0.034448 |
| One suited match | 12 | 2,464 | 0.033683 | 0.404194 |
| Two non-suited matches | 6 | 276 | 0.003773 | 0.022637 |
| One non-suited match | 3 | 8,448 | 0.115484 | 0.346452 |
| No matches | -1 | 61,776 | 0.844477 | -0.844477 |
| Total | 73,153 | 1.000000 | -0.029855 |
External Links
- Approval letter from the Washington state Gaming Commission for Match the Dealer.
- Discussion about Match the Dealer in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
Blackjack is one of the oldest casino table games one can think of. It was around the 60’s decade that Blackjack players devised a card counting system that enabled them to gain a house edge. As soon as this was made public, Blackjack players started to beat the dealers successfully in every other game. Very soon the conditions were amended and casinos started offering Blackjack games where tables used more than one card deck at a time. At some places, the percentage of the cards was cut before dealing. This was done to so that players could neither see the cards nor count them.
Not every other player was an expert at playing Blackjack but the belief that one could beat the dealer intrigued players to try their luck. Even after years, Blackjack continues to be one of the choicest casino games across the world. In the US too, Blackjack gained more popularity over other casino games such as Roulette, Craps and Baccarat. Blackjack is also known as 21 with simple rules. It does require a certain level of skill which can be attained through practice. Blackjack is a thrilling table game and loved by players who enjoy engaging in strategy. If you are good with numbers and skilled at card counting the cards, you can seize several winning opportunities.
Blackjack Rules
As you start, your sole objective of the game is to beat thedealer. You can beat the dealer in various ways. Firstly, if you draw a handvalue that is higher than that of the dealer’s, you know that you have beatenhim. In the second case, if your hand value exceeds 21 after the dealer drawsthe cards. Thirdly, you beat the dealer upon drawing a hand value of 21 on thefirst two cards in your hand at a time when the dealer fails to do so.
You will lose a Blackjack game when if your hand valueexceeds 21 or if the dealer’s hand has a higher value than yours at the end ofthat round.
When playing Blackjack you must pay close attention to a few things. For instance, unlike in a game of Poker where you win could depend on the cards of fellow players, in Blackjack, your opponent’s hands at the table have no role to play in your winning. Blackjack is a pure battle between you against the dealer. There’s no team role despite the number of players sitting at the table.
Blackjack Card Values
A quintessential game, Blackjack is played with a standarddeck of 52 playing cards. While the suits don’t have a role, cards from 2 to 10are taken at face value. This means card numbered 2 counts as two points and 10counts as ten points. Some other cards such as Jack, Queen and King are countedas 10. Ace can either count as 1 point or 11 points based on how you place andcount it to benefit your hand the most.
The Blackjacktable
The layout of the Blackjack table is quite interesting. Thesemicircular table can accommodate many players at a time. One of the commonBlackjack table layouts sights 7 players at the table. Some tables allow 5players while others can accommodate up to12 players. The arrangement of thetable is done in a manner that the dealer stands behind the table and theplaying chips rack while the players sit opposite to him.
How to playBlackjack
There are quite a few Blackjack variants and each hasdistinct rules and is played with different numbers of cards decks. Out of allthe variants that you see, one of the most common is that dealt out of 6 or 8decks. These cards are kept in a card dispensing device called the“shoe”.
The most common Blackjack format played is that with 6 decksalthough single and double-deck games are also played but not as common as theshoe games.
Chips to playwith
When you sit to play Blackjack, you need chips to play with. At very few casinos can you wager with cash and so in other casinos, you will have to get the cash you want to stake exchanged for playing coins or casino chips. So, even when you play real money games, you use these as tokens at the table against the real money you want to bet. Remember, that the dealer doesn’t take the money, so don’t hand it over to him or her. There are certain norms at casinos and for security reasons, any exchange of money between the player and dealer is considered against the casino’s policy.
You can put your money on the felt of the table you intendto play your Blackjack game at and the dealer makes sure that the in-housecameras capture this process. A pit boss comes over to the table and verifiesthe amount you offer to be staked. Subsequently, the dealer counts out the chipdenominations and handovers the chips equivalent to it. You can place your betsas you wish.
Wagering onBlackjack
Before you begin playing, the first step would be to place abet. Most Blackjack tables display the betting limits on one side of the tabledepending on which you can place your wager. The betting limits can vary acrosscasinos.
Dealing the cards
Once you’ve placed a bet, the dealer starts dealing thecards. This is done in a clockwise pattern. Every player is given one face-upcard. The dealer keeps one card for himself that is face down. In the seconddeal, he distributes another face-up card to each player and keeps one forhimself which is also face up. It’s from here that the game commences.
Playing thehands
When beginning to play, it’s the player seated on the leftof the dealer who starts. To play the hand, the player will add the card valuesin his hand to get a hand total between 4 and 21. If you, fortunately, receiveda 10 card value along with an Ace as the first two cards, you can call it aBlackjack! Hence, you don’t have to wait for the round to get over unless ofcourse if the dealer also has a Blackjack. You can get paid 1.5x your wagerupon winning the round instantly. However, if the dealer also has a Blackjack,your neither win nor lose.
What happens whenneither you nor the dealer has a Blackjack?
If you don’t have a Blackjack and the dealer also doesn’thave one, the dealer points to the other players in succession. By this timeyou can take a call on how you wish to play your hand. Once it’s your turn, youcan decide and signal the dealer accordingly.
Here are the ways you can play your hand:
Stand, Hit, Double Down, Split or Surrender. We’veexplained these options for your comprehensive understanding.
Stand
You can stand if the first two cards in your hand areacceptable. At this point, the dealer signals the next player to play. If youwish to Stand, you will have to wave your hand or put an open palm over theleft.
Hit
You can choose this option if you want to want to see howyou can improve your hand total with newer cards. This is done one at a timeuntil you choose to stand or you go bust with cards totalling beyond 21. Youcan take as many cards until it goes beyond 21. Choosing to Hit can be signalledby tapping the felt with your finger.
Double Down
Let’s say you have a hand total that appears advantageousbut you feel that you need to add one card still to arrive at a win. In such acase, you can double your original wager and get the dealer to deal one extracard to you. This can be signalled by simply putting a wager that’s equal toyour first wager. Put this on the left side of your initial bet and the dealerwill deal an additional card to you. You might see the dealer turning itsideways to indicate that you may not take any more cards.
You can also double for less at some casinos where you don’thave to match the first wager. Experts suggest that this might not be alucrative option.
Split
Let’s say you’ve been dealt a pair of cards where each cardhas an equal value. Now, if you can put a second bet, this deal will split thecards so that each of these cards is seen as first cards on both new hands. So,if you have a hand with a K and J, you can split as both have the same value10. If you want to split, simply put a second wager equal to your initial oneand give a peace signal to the dealer. The dealer will know that you wish tosplit and bot double down and will subsequently make hands out of your firstone. He will then deal another new card for each of those.
Surrender
Draw a line across the felt just behind your wager toindicate that you want to surrender. You can do this if you don’t like thefirst hand and think it’s best to give up in exchange for 50% your originalbet.
Dealer’s play
Beyond the 5 ways, as sighted for playing Blackjack, thedealer can play his hand. Depending on his up card he can call it a Blackjackor lose it to the player.
Blackjack Strategy
The basic strategy towards playing Blackjack is to play for every hand and dealer up-card.
If you go by the strategy, you can play your hand byemploying any of the options as discussed above. There are three anticipatedoutcomes:
- If you Stand immediately, it signifies that youwere dealt a hand where you should not take more cards as per the basicstrategy.
- If you made a hand, it means you took more cardsto get to a total of 21 or less.
- If your hand is out of play, you must have eitherbusted or hit or surrendered. The casino reserves an edge on Blackjack becauseif your hand busts, you instantly lose your wager.
Playing the thirdhand
Let’s say your hand hasn’t busted and you didn’t evensurrender, then this is when the dealer will play his third hand. First, heflips over his face down card also known as the “hole card”. Then he adds uphis two-card hand. If his hand total is 17 or more, he will Stand. In case hishand total is 16 or lesser, he can take an additional Hit card.
Remember, the dealer is not eligible to doubling, splittingor surrendering. Moreover, he is not authorized to decide on how to play hishand. He can only play his hand, in the same way, every time. It is only whenhe has a 17 with an Ace and 6 value, he can Hit. This is referred to as thesoft 17 hands and based on the casino, this can be counted as 7 also for Acecan be counted as 1 as well. This puts the dealer in an advantage as he canalways get a better hand than 17. If the dealer stands on “all 17”, the casinohas a better edge. In any case, the dealer has to abide by the casino rules andcannot deviate from it.
Payouts
Once everyone has finished playing their hands at theBlackjack table, it’s time for the payout. So, if the dealer busts, he has topay 1x the wager to every player hand at the table. If he makes a hand of 17and your hand is still in play, whoever has the higher hand will win the bet.If you manage a higher hand, the dealer will pay you 1x your bet. In anoccasion where both you and the dealer have the same value as your hand total,it is regarded as a push where you can keep what you had wagered. However, youwon’t be paid anything on your wager in this case.
With this, the round concludes and a fresh round begins!
Blackjack Variants
With the emerging popularity of the game, novel variations of Blackjack streamed into the market. Also, new rules have been created to play these games. While some are good, others may not be as beneficial to the players. For instance, the house edge could vary from casino to casino and even if they appear insignificant, they can make a big difference. Let’s look at a few variations of Blackjack and their impact on the house edge.
If you are allowed to double down after splitting pairs, it can lower the house edge by 0.13%. This is an advantage for the player. If you are at a casino that offers Blackjack where you can resplit Aces, should you play? This option cuts the house edge by 0.03% and yes that’s an advantage. Not everywhere will you find a game where you can draw more than one card on a split Ace and if you walk into one that offers this grab it as it can lower the house advantage by 0.14%.
Note that an early surrender can cut the house edge by 0.624%. If you are a beginner trying to learn the game, you can save yourself frombig losses by surrendering. However, this trick isn’t one that Blackjack proswould like to use. In most cases, the house allows players to surrender 50% ofthe initial bet even before the dealer checks his hand. This is easy tosurrender. If you surrender late, you will still be giving up half the bet butat this time the dealer would have checked his hand for Blackjack. In thiscase, the house edge is also lowered. In a single deck Blackjack game it is cutby 0.02% whereas, in a multiple deck game, the house edge is cut by0.07%.
Did you know that double downs can be limited to hard 10 andhard 11? Well, some casinos don’t allow players to double on totals below 10 orother soft hands. In such cases, you can expect the house advantage to shoot upby 0.28%.
What happens if the dealer hits a soft 17? Well, if he doesso instead of standing on all 17s, the house edge is likely to increase by0.02%. Of Blackjack games that pay 6-5, you can expect the house edge to beincreased. Commonly played on a single deck, this can break your bank.
You can enhance your Blackjack skills with refined tips.Blackjack is a quintessential game and comes with certain etiquettes that needto be maintained by players.
Blackjack Basic Strategy and Tips
When playing a game of Blackjack, there could be situationsthat call for a different course of action. Here we’ve put forth a few suchsituations that you could encounter at the casino.
Insurance in Blackjack: When the Blackjack dealer has an Aceas his up card, you will see that you are being offered insurance as a sidebet. The dealer usually proposes this before any player plays their hand.Either it is insurance or Even Money if you have a Blackjack.
In such a situation, you are allowed to put up a bet amountequal to 50% of your initial bet. You can also propose a lesser amount. Thisgets paid either as 1x or 2x depending on whether the dealer has a 10 value ashis hole card. This means that you will be betting on the dealer’s hand tocheck whether he has a Blackjack or not. You can claim 2x or 1x if you win.Most experts recommend players to reject the insurance and even money offer asa basic Blackjack strategy. Players who are skilled at card counting shouldideally engage inside bet play.
Remember that once all players who want to buy-in insuranceplace their wager, the dealer will check his face down card. If the dealer hasa 10, he has got a Blackjack! This means you and the other players will have togive away your initial wager. Of those who buy insurance can collect 2 to 1 ontheir insurance amount.
So what happens if the dealer does not have a 10 as his holecard? He can take any insurance wagers that had been made. The game, however,continues the way it would. In an occasion where a player holds a Blackjackwhen a dealer has an Ace, you can opt for even money. But, experts guardagainst this as they say that this is just another calculative approach of whatinsurance has to offer. In such a case, if you have taken the money, yourBlackjack would not get paid out normally. It will only get 1x the originalwager as compared to 3x or 2x that you could otherwise get. This is regardlessof whether or not the dealer has a Blackjack.
If you opt-out of even money and the dealer has a Blackjack,your Blackjack will not get paid. Now, let’s say you don’t take even money andthe dealer also does not have a Blackjack, in such a case you can collect 3x or2x your wager. Some experienced players advise that players should not takeeven money if they aren’t skilled at card counting.
The next one is the non-insurable dealer game of Blackjack.A dealer can have a Blackjack whether he offers insurance or even money doesnot make a difference. Now, if he has 10 as his upcard, he can check his facedown the card before any other player gets to play his hand. In case the dealerhas an Ace in the hole card, it means a Blackjack. He can take all the betsplaced on the table barring that of the player who also has a Blackjack. Thiswould just push. Note that insurance is offered only in a situation where thedealer shows an Ace.
If there’s a dead hand, the dealer will turn over his facedown card. Then he would sweep all the cards up and set them aside on thediscard tray. This happens when all players at the Blackjack table bust beforethe dealer has the opportunity to play his hand. There’s no reason to play thedealer’s hand in such a situation as you will only be wasting the cards as thedealer has won by beating the players at the table.
Another deviation in Blackjack can be traced to the sidebets. This has emerged as a popular feature in the last few years. In mostcases, it is the insurance that is regarded as the side bet. On most Blackjacktables, you’ll find insurance coded as a side bet. However, this is not theonly type of side bet as the innovation-driven industry has been creatingBlackjack games powered with other side bets as well. Commonly, you will berequired to place a bet on the side bet at the same time as you place your mainwager.
Other side bets could include:
- Betting on receiving a pair as the first 2cards,
- Betting on if your card will match the dealer’scard
- Betting on making a poker hand with the dealer’sface-up card.
- Betting on whether the dealer will bust.
Every side bet comes with a different set of procedures andpay tables. All you need to know is that these side bets are not an integralpart of your actual Blackjack game but can impact the regular procedure of thegame that you play. Most casinos offer these side bets as they bring them agood advantage. Blackjack pros warn against staking inside bets, insteadsuggest learning the art of card counting.
Rule Variationsin Blackjack games
Your game of Blackjack can be affected by the differentrules that apply. It is said that “not all Blackjack games are created equal”.The difference is usually in terms of the odds and also on how they favour theplayer. Here’s we’ve discussed a few rules and how they can impact the odds atplay.
1. Let’s take ‘doubling after splitting’ for instance. Thisallows players to double down on a hand that they have split. While somecasinos allow this, others don’t. At casinos that you to double aftersplitting, you can consider yourself lucky as it cuts on the house advantageand enhances the player edge.
2. The second one is ‘re-splitting the aces’. If your casinoallows you to split your Aces even after you’ve already spilt it once before,you have a reason to celebrate. For instance, you have a pair of Aces andreceived another as your following card; you will be allowed to split to athird hand or up to four hands. One thing that the casinos know is that the Aceis the most powerful card in the game of Blackjack and can be used as in twodifferent ways. That’s why most of them will not allow either doubling aftersplitting an Ace or taking additional cards so that the advantage is lesser forthe players.
3. ‘Early surrender’ is addressed as an early one because itwas to be made before a normal surrender. In the US, however, most casinosconsidered early surrender as an obsolete rule because it is similar to the regularsurrender rule where the player can surrender to the dealer before he checksfor a Blackjack or offers insurance. The strategy was considered to offerplayers a small edge. Moreover, players could avoid card counting yet have anadvantage.
4. 6 to 5 Blackjacks – In most casinos that offer Blackjackgames, you’ll find they reduce the payouts down to 6 to 5 from 3 to 2. This isdone to increase the house edge and siphon money from the player’s pockets.Blackjack veterans say that it can dissolve the pros of card counting. It issuggested that you read the rules before placing your wager on the Blackjacktable.
5. Many casinos use the ‘continuous shuffling machines’ fortheir Blackjack games. This machine usually shuffles cards in the course of thegame. Instead of putting the cards in the discard tray, you will find thedealers use this machine to put the used cards. Here they have continuouslyshuffled automatically. At casinos where these machines are employed, cardcounting could become a useless strategy, thereby making it difficult for theplayer to optimize the odds at winning.
6. Single deck and multiple-deck Blackjack – Do you knowthat adding a deck to the game of Blackjack increases the house edge. ABlackjack game played with 6 decks will have a higher house advantage than oneplayer with 2 card decks despite all other conditions being the same. Otherconditions being equal are more theoretical than practical. In a Blackjack gameplayed with one deck, you might not able to double after splitting. Also, thecasino might not allow re-splitting the aces plus there will be 6 to 5Blackjacks. In a game with multiple decks such as 8 decks, the casino mightallow doubling, re-splitting and also have only 3 to 2 Blackjacks.Additionally, the house edge would also be lesser.
7. Another variation is that of the ‘deck penetration’. Thisis expressed as a percentage of the cards that have been dealt out over thedeck or the shoe. The cards that are dealt towards the end have a cut-cardinserted somewhere in the shoe. As and when this cut-card is dealt during thegame, it indicates that the shoe is almost out of cards and that the dealerneeds to shuffle the cards. Most casinos cut off more cards so that theirprofitability from the game is not lost to a card counter although a quarter ofthe card deck can efficiently suffice for a Blackjack round. Players who counttheir cards can make use of the girth of shoe or deck penetration to eitherimprove or lose their winnings chances in a game of Blackjack.
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